A mere eight weeks prior when Morgan Rogers found himself on the Sunderland turf, looking confused as Unai Emery admonished him for failing to anticipate a penetrating pass. During that period, as the club went six without a win, the question was whether Rogers' form were a sign or the reason of Villa's wider issues.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
On Sunday, though, the sideline response proved to be much more joyous. After the in-form star drilled in his second to reinstate Villa's lead, Emery tore off his winter coat, spread his arms and roared. The Birmingham club marched on to a tenth straight victory , despite not winning any of their first six games, find themselves only three points off table-toppers Arsenal.
Are They Genuine Title Contenders?
It remains a rather hard proposition to address. History, a general sense of the club, argues against it. Moreover, their performances haven't been entirely convincing in many games, despite the fact the wins have piled up.
As per statistical analysis, in only two games have Villa posted an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than the opposition. For a side who have put together a ten-match winning streak, Villa appear weirdly vulnerable – however currently the fine lines are falling their way.
The Rogers Recipe
The current approach appears to be to engage in a shootout with rivals and then rely on Rogers to bail them out with some crisp finishes. This was the case away to Leeds, it occurred against West Ham, and once more against Manchester United.
Rogers' first goal stemmed from a brilliant finish, arced precisely inside the upright from the corner of the box. His brace-completing goal proved to be a somewhat messier replica of the opener capitalizing on a pass from Watkins.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
Is It Sustainable?
Common sense dictates no. Against United, the opposition registered more shots and more efforts on goal. They have triumphed in eight consecutive games by a single goal. They have allowed goals in all but one of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean might be the greatest opponent the club must confront as the season progresses. The forward, in all likelihood, cannot keep on blasting the football into the net's top corner forever.
Potential for Growth
Could it be an alternative path where, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, performances begin to trend towards results. Important figures might still rediscover their best form.
- Ollie Watkins might resume adding to his goal tally.
- The winger might become the performer he showed at Borussia Dortmund.
- The injured centre-backs will eventually come back from the treatment room, fortifying a sometimes shaky backline.
Perhaps there is in that the potential of a title challenge, yet it seems unlikely can persist in leaning entirely on Morgan Rogers.
Enjoying the Ride
Yet, nobody expected this. Few believed the team would sit in the top three for the holidays. And most definitely two months ago, few could imagine the midfielder as the year closed would be spearheading a hunt for the title while looking like a vital England player.
The current run is to be savoured precisely because it seems so surreal. When the hero stood in front of the home supporters after the match orchestrating the applause, it was clear to be thoroughly enjoying it. Which he fully merits. These spells do not happen often and must be appreciated.
